What the UK general election might mean for the Middle East 

Special Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, stands at a lecturn as he delivers a speech to announce July 4 as the date of the UK’s general election. (File/AFP)
Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, stands at a lecturn as he delivers a speech to announce July 4 as the date of the UK’s general election. (File/AFP)
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Updated 03 July 2024
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What the UK general election might mean for the Middle East 

Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and Britain’s Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak attend a live TV debate.
  • Perceived inaction on Gaza has hung over the election contest between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer
  • If the polls prove correct and Labour sweeps to power, analysts predict a far closer UK-Gulf relationship

LONDON: It was clear from the moment that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood outside 10 Downing Street on May 22 and announced that he was calling a snap general election that the next six weeks would not go well for his ruling Conservative party.

For many, the raincloud that burst over Sunak’s head as he spoke seemed to sum up the past 14 years, which, riven by factional infighting, saw no fewer than four leaders in the eight years since Theresa May succeeded David Cameron in 2016.

Adding to the comedy of the moment was the soundtrack to the announcement, courtesy of a protester at the gates of Downing Street, whose sound system was blasting out the ’90s pop hit “Things Can Only Get Better” — the theme tune of Labour’s 1997 election victory.




Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech at a Conservative Party campaign event at the National Army Museum in London. (File/AP)

Headline writers were spoiled for choice. Contenders included “Drown and out,” “Drowning Street” and — probably the winner — “Things can only get wetter.” That last one was also prescient. 

In theory, under the rules governing general elections, Sunak need not have gone to the country until December. The reality, however, was that both Sunak and his party were already trailing badly in the polls and the consensus at Conservative HQ was that things could only get worse.

As if to prove the point, in one early Conservative campaign video, the British Union Flag was flown upside down. A series of mishaps and scandals followed, with some Conservative MPs found to have been betting against themselves and the party.




Former British PM Boris Johnson gestures as he endorses British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at a campaign event in London, Britain, July 2, 2024. (Reuters)

Judging by the steady slide in support for the government, the electorate has neither forgotten nor forgiven the chaos of the Boris Johnson years, typified by the illegal drinks parties held in Downing Street while the rest of the nation was locked down during COVID-19 restrictions.

Nor has the electorate forgotten the failure to deliver on the great promises of Brexit, the shock to the UK economy delivered by the 44-day premiership of Liz Truss, and the inability of the government to control the UK’s borders — which was, after all, the chief reason for leaving the EU.

On the day the election was announced, a seven-day average of polls showed Labour had twice as much support as the Conservatives — 45 percent to 23 percent.

Compounding the government’s woes was the rise of Reform UK, the populist right-wing party making gains thanks largely to the failure of Sunak’s pledge to reduce immigration and “stop the boats” carrying illegal migrants across the English Channel.

On 11 percent, Reform had overtaken the Lib Dems, Britain’s traditional third-placed party, and the vast majority of the votes it seemed certain to hoover up would be those of disenchanted Conservative voters.

By the eve of today’s election, a poll of 18 polls carried out in the seven days to July 2 showed Labour’s lead had eased only very slightly, to 40 percent against the Conservatives’ 21 percent, with Reform up to 16 percent.




Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and Britain’s Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak attend a live TV debate, hosted by the BBC. (File/AFP)

On Wednesday, a final YouGov poll on the eve of voting predicted that Labour would win 431 seats, while the Conservatives would return to the new parliament on July 9 with only 102 MPs — less than a third of the 365 seats they won in 2019.

If this proves to be the case, Starmer would have a majority of 212, not only bigger than Tony Blair’s in 1997, but also the strongest performance in an election by any party since 1832.

After the polls close tonight at 10pm, there is a very good chance that Sunak may even lose his own seat, the constituency of Richmond and Northallerton, which the Conservatives have held for 114 years.

Either way, the Conservative party will be thrust into further turmoil as the battle begins to select the party’s next leader who, as many commentators are predicting, can look forward to at least a decade in opposition.




Reform UK leader Nigel Farage scratches his head as he delivers a speech during the “Rally for Reform” at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. (File/AFP)

The return of Labour, a completely regenerated party after 14 years in the wilderness, is likely to be good news for Britain’s relationships in the Middle East, as Arab News columnist Muddassar Ahmed predicted this week.

Distracted by one domestic or internal crisis after another, the Conservatives have not only neglected their friends and allies in the region but, in an attempt to stem the loss of its supporters to Reform UK, have also pandered to racial and religious prejudices.

“The horrific scenes unfolding in Gaza, for example, have rocked Muslims worldwide while pitting different faith communities against one another,” Ahmed wrote.




A Palestinian boy who suffers from malnutrition receives care at the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on July 2, 2024. (AFP)

“But instead of working to rebuild the relationships between British Muslims, Jews and Christians, the Conservative government has branded efforts to support Palestinians as little more than insurgent ‘hate marches’ — using the horrific conflict to wedge communities that ought to be allied.”

On the other hand, Labour appears determined to reinvigorate the country’s relationship with a region once central to the UK’s interests.

January this year saw the launch of the Labour Middle East Council (LMEC), founded with “the fundamental goal of cultivating understanding and fostering enduring relationships between UK parliamentarians and the Middle East and North Africa.”

Chaired by Sir William Patey, a former head of the Middle East Department at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and an ambassador to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Sudan, and with an advisory board featuring two other former British ambassadors to the region, the LMEC will be a strong voice whispering in the ear of a Labour government that will be very open to what it has to say.




Britain’s Labour Party leader Keir Starmer speaks on stage at the launch of the party’s manifesto in Manchester, England, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)

Writing in The House magazine, Sir William predicted “a paradigm shift in British foreign policy is imminent.”

He added: “As a nation with deep-rooted historical connections to the Middle East, the UK has a unique role to play in fostering a stable and prosperous region.”

The role of the LMEC would be “to harness these connections for a positive future. We will work collaboratively to address pressing global issues, from climate change to technological advancement, ensuring that our approach is always one of respect, partnership, and shared progress.”

David Lammy, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, has already made several visits to the region since Oct. 7. In April he expressed “serious concerns about a breach in international humanitarian law” over Israel’s military offensive in Gaza.




Britain’s main opposition Labour Party Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy addresses delegates at the annual Labour Party conference in Liverpool. (File/AFP)

It was, he added, “important to reaffirm that a life lost is a life lost whether that is a Muslim or a Jew.” In May, Lammy called for the UK to pause arms sales to Israel.

In opposition, Labour has hesitated to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, but this has been a product of its own internal and domestic tensions. Starmer has brought the party back on track after years of accusations by UK Jewish activist groups that under his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn it was fundamentally antisemitic.

Whether the charges were true, or whether the party’s staunch support of the Palestinian cause was misrepresented as antisemitism, was a moot point. Starmer knew that, in the run-up to a general election, this was hard-won ground that he could not afford to lose.

Nevertheless, even as he has alienated some Muslim communities in the UK for his failure to call for a ceasefire, he has spoken out repeatedly against the horrors that have unfolded in Gaza.




A protester looks on in Parliament Square, central London, on June 8, 2024 at the end of the “National March for Gaza”. (File/AFP) 

Crucially, he has consistently backed the two-state solution, and the creation of “a viable Palestinian state where the Palestinian people and their children enjoy the freedoms and opportunities that we all take for granted.”

In broader terms, Lammy has also made clear that Labour intends to re-engage with the Middle East through a new policy of what he called “progressive realism.”

Less than a week before Sunak called his surprise general election, Lammy spoke of the need for the UK to mend relations with the Gulf states, which he saw as “hugely important for security in the Middle East” and “important in relation to our economic growth missions.”

Because of missteps by the Conservative government, he added, relations between the UAE and the UK, for example, were at “an all-time low. That is not acceptable and not in the UK’s national interests (and) we will seek to repair that.”

In an article he wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine, Lammy went further.

China, he said, was not the world’s only rising power, and “a broadening group of states — including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — have claimed seats at the table. They and others have the power to shape their regional environments, and they ignore the EU, the UK, and the US ever more frequently.”

Lammy expressed regret for “the chaotic Western military interventions during the first decades of this century,” in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, which had proved to be a “recipe for disorder.”

As shadow foreign secretary, he has traveled extensively across the MENA region, to countries including Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the UAE, and the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

All, he wrote, “will be vital partners for the UK in this decade, not least as the country seeks to reconstruct Gaza and — as soon as possible — realize a two-state solution.”

For many regional observers, Labour is starting with a clean sheet, but has much to prove.

“It is an acknowledged fact among scholars that foreign policies don’t radically change after elections,” Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, professor in global thought and comparative philosophies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, told Arab News.

“Therefore, I don’t expect major shifts once Labour forms the government in the UK.

“That said, the composition of the Labour party and its ‘backbench’ politics are likely to shift the language and probably even the code of conduct, in particular with reference to the question of Palestine. For a Labour leader it may be that much more difficult to be agnostic about the horrific human rights situation in Gaza.”




Displaced Palestinians flee after the Israeli army issued a new evacuation order for parts of Khan Yunis and Rafah on July 2, 2024. (AFP)

For political analysts advising international clients, however, the implications of a Labour victory extend beyond the situation in Gaza.

“In an attempt to secure political longevity, the party will renegotiate key policy priorities in the Middle East,” said Kasturi Mishra, a political consultant at Hardcastle, a global advisory firm that has been closely following the foreign policy implications of the UK election for its clients in business and international politics.

“This could include calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, ending arms sales to Israel, reviving trade and diplomacy with the Gulf states and increasing the UK’s defense spending in the region,” Mishra told Arab News.

“This renegotiation is important at a time when the UK finds itself increasingly uncertain of its global position.




Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan meets with Shadow Foreign Secretary of the British Labor Party David Lammy on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue 2023 held in Bahrain. (SPA)

“The Middle East has significant geopolitical and security implications for the West. Labour policy-makers recognize this and are likely to deepen British engagement with the region to reshape its soft power and influence.”

Mishra highlighted Lammy’s multiple trips to the region as a foretaste of a Labour’s intention to strengthen ties with the Gulf states, “which have been neglected in post-Brexit Britain. 

“Given the influential role of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in regional security and the potential to collaborate with them on climate mitigation and other international issues, it is clear that he will seek to forge partnerships.

“His doctrine of progressive realism combines a values-based world order with pragmatism. It is expected that he will favor personalized diplomacy, more akin to that of the UAE, India and France.”

 


Anger and resentment rise in Los Angeles over fire response

Anger and resentment rise in Los Angeles over fire response
Updated 57 min 14 sec ago
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Anger and resentment rise in Los Angeles over fire response

Anger and resentment rise in Los Angeles over fire response
  • For Los Angeles residents, the arrival of National Guard soldiers is too little, too late
  • Multiple fires that continue to ravage Los Angeles have killed at least 11 people, authorities say

ALTADENA, United States: After being largely reduced to ashes by wildfire, Altadena was being patrolled by National Guard soldiers on Friday.
For residents of this devastated Los Angeles suburb, the arrival of these men in uniform is too little, too late.
“We didn’t see a single firefighter while we were throwing buckets of water to defend our house against the flames” on Tuesday night, said Nicholas Norman, 40.
“They were too busy over in the Palisades saving the rich and famous’s properties, and they let us common folks burn,” said the teacher.
But the fire did not discriminate.
In the upscale Pacific Palisades neighborhood, the first to be hit by the flames this week, wealthy residents share the same resentment toward the authorities.
“Our city has completely let us down,” said Nicole Perri, outraged by the fact that hydrants being used by firefighters ran dry or lost pressure.
Her lavish Palisades home was burnt to cinders. In a state of shock, the 32-year-old stylist wants to see accountability.
“Things should have been in place that could have prevented this,” she said.
“We’ve lost everything, and I just feel zero support from our city, our horrible mayor and our governor.”
Multiple fires that continue to ravage Los Angeles have killed at least 11 people, authorities say.
Around 10,000 buildings have been destroyed, and well over 100,000 residents have been forced to evacuate.
So far authorities have largely blamed the intense 160 kilometer per hour winds that raged earlier this week, and recent months of drought, for the disaster.
But this explanation alone falls short for many Californians, thousands of whom have lost everything.
Karen Bass, the city’s mayor, has come in for heavy criticism because she was visiting the African nation of Ghana when the fire started, despite dire weather warnings in the preceding days.
Budget cuts to the fire department, and a series of evacuation warnings erroneously sent to millions of people this week, have only stoked the anger further.
“I don’t think the officials were prepared at all,” said James Brown, a 65-year-old retired lawyer in Altadena.
“There’s going to have to be a real evaluation here, because hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people have just been completely displaced,” he said.
“It’s like you’re in a war zone.”
Mayor Bass and California Governor Gavin Newsom, both Democrats, have separately called for investigations.
Republican president-elect Donald Trump has fanned the flames of controversy, blaming California’s liberal leadership and encouraging his followers to do the same.
But the highly politicized attacks by Trump — who made false claims about why fire hydrants ran dry — have also frustrated some survivors in Altadena.
“That’s textbook Trump: he’s trying to start a polemic with false information,” said architect Ross Ramsey, 37.
“It’s too early to point fingers or blame anybody for anything,” he said, while clearing ashes from the remains of his mother’s house.
“We should be focusing on the people who are trying to pick up their lives and how to help them... Then we can point fingers and figure this all out, with real facts and real data.”


Malala Yousafzai ‘overwhelmed and happy’ to be back in Pakistan

Malala Yousafzai ‘overwhelmed and happy’ to be back in Pakistan
Updated 11 January 2025
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Malala Yousafzai ‘overwhelmed and happy’ to be back in Pakistan

Malala Yousafzai ‘overwhelmed and happy’ to be back in Pakistan
  • The education activist was shot by the Pakistani Taliban in 2012 when she was a schoolgirl
  • Pakistan is facing a severe education crisis with more than 26 million children out of school

ISLAMABAD: Nobel Peace Prize laureate Malala Yousafzai said Saturday she was “overwhelmed” to be back in her native Pakistan, as she arrived for a global summit on girls’ education in the Islamic world.
The education activist was shot by the Pakistani Taliban in 2012 when she was a schoolgirl and has returned to the country only a handful of times since.
“I’m truly honored, overwhelmed and happy to be back in Pakistan,” she said as she arrived at the conference in the capital Islamabad.
The two-day summit was set to be opened Saturday morning by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and brings together representatives from Muslim-majority countries, where tens of millions of girls are out of school.
Yousafzai is due to address the summit on Sunday.
“I will speak about protecting rights for all girls to go to school, and why leaders must hold the Taliban accountable for their crimes against Afghan women & girls,” she posted on social media platform X on Friday.
The country’s education minister Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui said the Taliban government in Afghanistan had been invited to attend, but Islamabad has not received a response.
Afghanistan is the only country in the world where girls and women are banned from going to school and university.
Since returning to power in 2021, the Taliban government there has imposed an austere version of Islamic law that the United Nations has called “gender apartheid.”
Pakistan is facing its own severe education crisis with more than 26 million children out of school, mostly as a result of poverty, according to official government figures — one of the highest figures in the world.
Yousafzai became a household name after she was attacked by Pakistan Taliban militants on a school bus in the remote Swat valley in 2012.
She was evacuated to the United Kingdom and went on to become a global advocate for girls’ education and, at the age of 17, the youngest Nobel Peace Prize winner.


Jeju Air crash black boxes stopped recording before flight crashed

Jeju Air crash black boxes stopped recording before flight crashed
Updated 11 January 2025
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Jeju Air crash black boxes stopped recording before flight crashed

Jeju Air crash black boxes stopped recording before flight crashed
  • South Korean and US investigators are still probing the cause of the crash of Jeju Air flight 2216
  • Investigators have pointed to a bird strike, faulty landing gear and the runway barrier as possible issues

The black boxes holding the flight data and cockpit voice recorders for the crashed Jeju Air flight that left 179 people dead stopped recording four minutes before the disaster, South Korea’s transport ministry said Saturday.

The Boeing 737-800 was flying from Thailand to Muan, South Korea, on December 29 carrying 181 passengers and crew when it belly-landed at the Muan airport and exploded in a fireball after slamming into a concrete barrier.

“The analysis revealed that both the CVR and FDR data were not recorded during the four minutes leading up to the aircraft’s collision with the localizer,” the transport ministry said in a statement, referring to the two recording devices.

The localizer is a barrier at the end of the runway that helps with aircraft landings and was blamed for exacerbating the crash’s severity.

“Plans are in place to investigate the cause of the data loss during the ongoing accident investigation,” the statement added.

South Korean and US investigators are still probing the cause of the crash of Jeju Air flight 2216, which prompted a national outpouring of mourning with memorials set up across the country.

Investigators have pointed to a bird strike, faulty landing gear and the runway barrier as possible issues.

The pilot warned of a bird strike before pulling out of a first landing, then crashed on a second attempt when the landing gear did not emerge.


Text messaging scammers stole $2m in cryptocurrency from victims, says NY lawsuit

Text messaging scammers stole $2m in cryptocurrency from victims, says NY lawsuit
Updated 11 January 2025
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Text messaging scammers stole $2m in cryptocurrency from victims, says NY lawsuit

Text messaging scammers stole $2m in cryptocurrency from victims, says NY lawsuit
  • Scammers used unsolicited text messages to target people looking for remote work
  • Victims were told to review products online in order to help generate “market data”

NEW YORK: Scammers stole millions of dollars in cryptocurrency from people seeking remote work opportunities as part of an elaborate scheme, according to New York’s attorney general.
Attorney General Letitia James said Thursday that she’s filed a lawsuit in order to recover more than $2 million that she said was stolen from New Yorkers and others around the country.
James said the unknown network of scammers used unsolicited text messages to target people looking for remote work.
They told victims that the job involved reviewing products online in order to help generate “market data,” James’ office said. But in order to begin earning money, victims were told they had to open cryptocurrency accounts and had to maintain a balance equal to, or greater than, the price of the products they were reviewing.
The victims were assured they would get their investments back plus commission, but the funds simply went into the scammers’ crypto wallets, James’ office said. The product reviews were also conducted on a website set up as part of the scheme.
The suit cites seven victims, identified by pseudonyms, residing in New York, Virginia and Florida. One New York victim lost over $100,000, according to the suit. A Florida woman lost over $300,000.
“Deceiving New Yorkers looking to take on remote work and earn money to support their families is cruel and unacceptable,” she said in a statement. “Scammers sent text messages to New Yorkers promising them good-paying, flexible jobs only to trick them into purchasing cryptocurrency and then stealing it from them.”
James’ suit seeks to return the stolen funds.
Queens District Attorney Melinda Katz said her office’s cryptocurrency unit traced over $2 million in stolen crypto and identified the digital wallets where the coins were being held. Then, working with James’ office, they were able to have the currency frozen until they could be returned to victims.
“Work scams that prey on those seeking legitimate employment not only rob victims of their hard-earned money but also shatter their trust in the job market,” she added.


UK finance minister seeks ‘pragmatic’ relations with China to boost trade

UK finance minister seeks ‘pragmatic’ relations with China to boost trade
Updated 11 January 2025
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UK finance minister seeks ‘pragmatic’ relations with China to boost trade

UK finance minister seeks ‘pragmatic’ relations with China to boost trade
  • Rachel Reeves is seeking to revive high-level economic and financial talks that have been frozen since 2019
  • China is Britain’s fourth-largest trading partner, accounting for goods and services trade worth almost $138 billion

BEIJING: British finance minister Rachel Reeves said on Saturday during a visit to Beijing that she intended to have “pragmatic” relations with Chinese leaders to boost exports to the world’s second-largest economy.
Under pressure from market turmoil at home, Reeves is seeking to revive high-level economic and financial talks that have been frozen since 2019.
She joins the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue meeting in Beijing with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Saturday, before traveling to Shanghai, accompanied by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and other finance leaders.
She is due to discuss financial services, trading ties and the importance of cooperation on issues like climate change, the Treasury said.
Her appearance offers a chance to persuade investors that she has plans to deal with a sharp increase in British government borrowing costs, due in part to a global bond selloff which threatens to derail her budget plans.
“The fiscal rules that I set out in my budget in October are non-negotiable and growth is the number one mission of this government to make our country better off,” Reeves told reporters after visiting a Brompton bicycles shop in Beijing.
“That’s why I’m in China to unlock tangible benefits for British businesses exporting and trading around the world to ensure that we have greater access to the second-largest economy in the world.”
Reeves’ visit follows a dialogue opened last year between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Xi Jinping, the first between the two countries’ leaders since 2018.
The approach taken by the Labour government, elected in July, contrasts with the previous Conservative administration which took a robust approach to differences with China — particularly over human rights, Hong Kong and allegations of Chinese espionage.
Asked on Thursday if Reeves would raise human-rights issues, Starmer’s spokesperson said her visit would fit with London’s stance that it would take a strategic approach to China and challenge it “robustly” when necessary.
Starmer has long described his desire to build a relationship with China that is “rooted in the UK’s national interests” by boosting trade, a task that may become more difficult if US President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on all imports.
Asked whether Britain would follow Washington and Brussels in imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, Reeves said: “We keep issues under review but we make decisions in our national interest.”
British car manufacturers “like Jaguar and Land Rover export substantially to Chinese markets, and we want to help them to grow.”
China is Britain’s fourth-largest trading partner, accounting for goods and services trade worth almost 113 billion pounds ($138 billion).